Saturday marks the 152^nd running of the Kentucky Derby.  The first one I remember watching on TV was 1958 when Tim Tam won, and the first that I ever attended was 1966 when Kauai King, ridden by Don Brumfield won the roses.   I listened to the 1967 and 1968 Derbies on AFRTS Radio while in the Army on Okinawa, and was back at Churchill Downs in 1999 when Majestic Prince edged out my favorite, Arts and Letters.  I attended eight more in person in Louisville, prior to the advent of Full-Card simulcast wagering, when we used to have a great time betting the Derby Day card at River Downs here in town.  Derby Day has always been special to me.  I consider it the greatest holiday – I don’t have to go to church, visit the relatives, buy anyone gifts, and If I’m lucky I can make a few bucks.  I cherish the more recent Derbies, when I would watch it with my Dad, while sharing his stash of Crown Royal, a tradition that I still maintain, even without him.

While I don’t normally get interested in the Derby or familiarize myself with the contenders until Derby Week, this year has been somewhat of an exception, as I did watch all of the major prep races and have formed some strong opinions coming into the 152^nd Renewal of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. 

Unfortunately, I have landed on the two favorites, Renegade and Further Ado.  I strongly believe that these are the two best horses in the race.  However, the Post Position draw did Renegade no favors awarding him the Number One inside post.  You know my opinion on the Derby – 3 year olds being asked to go a mile and a quarter, while carrying 126 pounds in a 20 horse field.  It is insanity.  A normal horse race is anywhere from ¾ of a mile to a mile and a sixteenth, carrying 122 pounds in a field of a maximum of 12 horses in a race.  A 20 horse field is insane, creating all kinds of issues.   With this being said, I have been very fortunate to pick the contenders among the top three finishers in the past four or five derbies.

Renegade ran one of the most powerful preps I have ever seen, blowing past the field in the Arkansas Derby.  He has the proper running style and Irad Ortiz who is as good a jockey as there is in America today.  The Post Position (1) is the issue.  He will have 19 horses outside of him wanting to get over to the rail by the first turn.  This would normally put him 10 lengths behind going into the turn, but in this case could find him 20 lengths back, which might be asking too much.

The other favorite is Further Ado (18) who blew away the field in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland by 11 lengths.  His connections, the Brad Cox Team, chose the 18 post position, which should give him clear sailing and a good position in the early stages of the race.  This horse has run six races and won three of them, two of them at Keeneland by huge margins.  This raises the question, Is Further Ado a “horse for the course”  who does his best running at Keeneland, but is vulnerable at other tracks.  He only beat The Puma (9) by a half-length in the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs.  Perhaps the Tampa Bay Derby contained a much stronger field than the Bluegrass Stakes, yet his stretch run at Keeneland was awesome, regardless of who he was running against.

I am normally a strong advocate of the winner of the Florida Derby,   It is indisputably the strongest of the Derby Prep races.  Last year Sovereignty finished second in the Florida Derby, and the winner didn’t make the race.  I chose Journalism over Sovereignty and it cost me.  They finished in reverse order.  This year’s Florida Derby winner, Commandment (6) will be  well regarded, as he well should be, and I will not let him beat me without a couple of bucks on his nose, BUT his preps have not been as visually impressive as the two favorites.  He is trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Louis Saez, both top notch connections.

So, if Renegade, Further Ado, or Commandment don’t win, Who Does?  The Puma (9) is getting a lot of buzz.  And he only lost to Renegade (1) by 5 lengths, Commandment (6) by a nose in the Florid Derby, and beat Further Ado (18) in the Tampa Bay Derby.  These facts alone make him a contender.  My knock on him is that he loomed boldly at the top of the stretch in the Florida Derby, BUT didn’t go on with it, whereas Renegade (1) and Further Ado (18) did the same thing and then blew their respective fields away.   I could see him doing the same thing in the Derby, running up to take the lead at the top of the stretch, and then flattening out.   The Japanese horses have been getting better every year.  Forever Young, who was third to Mystic Dan and Sierra Leone two years ago, is now considered to be the best horse in the world.  The Nippon crew have two legitimate longshots Danan Bourbon (7) who is a Kentucky Bred that was purchased by Japanese interests and sent to Japan to race, where he is undefeated in three races.  While this year’s pace doesn’t project to be insanely crazy as in some past years, 1 1/4 miles on the lead is grueling to say the least.  His running style concerns me.  I think he will be too close to the pace and falter in the stretch.  Wonder Dean (10) is a Japanese Bred who recently won the UAE Derby in Dubai.  He does have the preferred, off of the pace, running style and could hit the board at a big number.  Another horse that I simply can’t throw out is Incredibolt (11).  He has the proper running style and is 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs.  He could light up the board Saturday night.  While I think that he is an under-play, A $2 win ticket might put a few large bucks in your pocket. 

As always there are a lot of “Pretenders” in this race.  I think that So Happy (8) is totally bogus.  He is a son of Runhappy, the most over-hyped sire in the history of the game.  I compare him to a few years back when Hanson was all of the rage, but didn’t lift a hoof in the race.  I expect to find So Happy back in the rear of the pack when they cross under the wire the second time.  I like NONE of the California horses – Intrepido (3), So Happy (8), or Potente (14).  If any of these win, I lose.

Then there are horses who are simply not good enough or have the wrong running styles  – Albus (2), Litmus Test (4), Right to Party (5), Chief Wallabee (12), Chad Brown sends out Emerging Market (15).  You can never count out Chad Brown/Flavien Prat, BUT this horse has only had two starts, winning them both.  He also prefers to run close to the pace, BUT refuses to run into daylight, which is a recipe for disaster in the Derby, so I will throw him out along with Pavlovian (16), Six Speed (17), Golden Tempo (19).   Great White (21), and Oceilli (22) who have drawn into the race, both fit in the Pretender category.   Great White is a local horse who won the John Battaglia Memorial here at Turfway, and is trained by John Ennis, a friend, but I’m thinking he will be overwhelmed by the outside post and a field of 20.

In summary, Major Contenders/Favorites – Renegade and Further Ado. 

Another with a big chance – Commandment. 

Legitimate Horses to put on your ticket – Wonder Dean, Incredibolt, and The Puma.

Betting strategy:  Since wagering on the Derby is all about trying to cash a ticket and make a few bucks, the best strategy this year might be to bet against the two favorites, thinking that Renegade, despite being the best horse in the race, might get shuffled too far back and left with too much work to do, and thinking that maybe Further Ado is a One-Track pony – Keeneland, it might be wise to play against them.  I would still keep Renegade somewhere on your ticket, but leave Further Ado off.  That will be the tactics that I will employ.  This then leaves Commandment (6) as the key play, using him on top and under Wonder Dean (10), Incredibolt, (11) and The Puma (9).

Sample Exactas:  6 over 9, 10, 11 and 9, 10, 11 over 6  –  Minimum $6 Total Wager

Trifectas:  6 with 9, 10, 11 with 1, AND  9, 10, 11- over 6, over 1, AND 1-6 with 1, 6, with 9, 10, 11  –  Minimum $12 wager

Just to play it safe, Play Further Ado (18) over 6 and 1 with 9, 10, 11 AND 18 over 9, 10, 11 with 1 and 6.  Minimum $12 wager.

Good Luck!  Enjoy Derby Day

DS